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大咖看行业 | Tom眼中的新零售

发布时间:2016-12-29来源:又一城 全渠道 新零售

┃前言

伴随着线下及线上企业销售增速双双放缓(根据统计局数据,2016年前三季度中国网上零售额同比增长26.1%、传统零售业态零售额同比增长7%),近期以来线上、线下企业“跨界”动作不断:阿里巴巴入股三江购物(前两年先后入股银泰商业和苏宁云商),京东携手永辉超市试水O2O(沃尔玛为京东股东并与京东达成深度战略合作关系),小米雷军表示将开两三百家线下小米之家零售店(未来争取开1000家线下店),亚马逊运用智能软硬件技术推出Amazon Go无人便利店(顾客刷手机APP进入超市后拿了商品无需结账即可离开,无需排队,无需结账)……

线上、线下融合的全渠道零售模式已是大势所趋,零售业又到了转型升级的路口。

Tom今天试着解释下何为新零售以及新零售的趋势和特征,随附部分与新零售相关的数据、图表。

马化腾说“其实你什么都没有做错,就是因为你太老了”,这句话不仅适用于零售变革浪潮来临时踯躅不前的线下或线上零售人,还适用于各行各业的你我他。但热衷于足球的Tom从不觉得或承认自己老了,尤其是在自己关注的领域。



┃何为新零售

零售的核心

Tom从20年前阅读的那本RETAILING(零售学)得到的结论是:零售的核心在于识别和满足消费者未被满足的需求(Identify and Satisfy Consumers’ Unmet Demand)。

消费者的消费结构、消费习惯等均是时刻变化的(世上唯一不变就是“变”),且该等变化呈逐渐加速之势。就当前阶段而言,零售的宗旨应以用户体验为中心,运用互联网及物联网技术最大化交易效率和生产效率。

大咖眼中的零售

全球零售头牌亚马逊(从市值上看,亚马逊比沃尔玛和阿里巴巴大得多)在其最新年报中称:

Amazon.com seeks to be Earth’s most customer-centric company. We are guided by four principles: customer obsession rather than competitor focus, passion for invention, commitment to operational excellence,and long-term thinking. In each of our segments, we serve our primary customer sets, consisting of consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators.

We serve consumers through our retail websites and focus on selection, price, and convenience.We believe that the principal competitive factors in our retail businesses include selection,price, and convenience, including fastand reliable fulfillment. Additional competitive factors for our sellerand enterprise services include the quality,speed, and reliability of our services and tools, as well as customers’ ability and willingness to change business practices.

中国线上零售巨头京东在其2015年报中的表述是:

We believe we provide consumers an enjoyable online retail experience. Through our content-rich and user-friendly website www.jd.com and mobile applications, we offer a wide selection of authentic products at competitive prices which are delivered in a speedy and reliable manner. We also offer convenient online and in-person payment options and comprehensive customer services.


前全球零售老大沃尔玛在其2015年报中称:

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. helps people around the world save money and live better – anytime and anywhere – in retail stores or through our e-commerce and mobile capabilities.Through innovation, we are striving to create a customer-centric experience that seamlessly integratesdigital and physical shopping. Our strategy is to lead on price, differentiate on access, be competitive on assortment and deliver a great experience. Price leadership is core to who we are. Our digital and physical presence provides customers access to our broad assortment anytime and anywhere. We strive to give our customers and members a great digital and physical shopping experience.

【Tom’s comment】三大零售巨头的共同点在于:他们均明确提出围绕消费者及用户体验,均提到三大关键词“价格”、“品类”和“便利”。不同点在于:亚马逊的口号和哲学逼格(Vision)似乎更高一些(提到了passion for invention和 long term thinking以及customers’ ability and willingness to change business practices),老板(Bezos)是华尔街出来的果然不太一样; 京东则强调其自建物流的优势以及具中国特色的“authentic products”,在识别和满足消费者需求方面确实也颇具特色;沃尔玛则在强调其EDLP(每日低价)传统优势的基础上申明其数字化以及电子商务战略布局。Tom认为:零售的本质从来没有变化,变化的是消费者未被满足的需求时刻在变且变速在加快;不管是沃尔玛、亚马逊还是京东,passion for invention 和 long term thinking均是非常重要的。


新零售是什么玩意


马云认为:互联网时代,传统零售行业受到了电商互联网的冲击;未来线下与线上零售将深度结合,再加现代物流,服务商利用大数据、云计算等创新技术,构成未来新零售的概念;纯电商的时代很快将结束,纯零售的形式也将被打破,新零售将引领未来全新的商业模式。

张勇(阿里巴巴CEO)认为:新零售是利用互联网的思想和技术去全面改革和升级现有的约30万亿社会零售商品总量,使得中国消费者日益升级的消费需求可以得到有效的满足,使得整个商品生产、流通、服务的过程因为互联网、大数据的广泛运用变得更加高效。

雷军认为:我觉得不管是电商,还是线下的连锁店、零售店,本质上要改善效率,只有改善效率,中国的产品才会越来越好,中国老百姓的购买需求才会极大地释放出来。

Tom认为:①零售就是零售,零售不存在新旧之分,所谓的新零售指的是在新的特定时期去识别和满足消费者未被满足的需求;②就零售而言,虽然消费在升级,但其本质和基本法则并没有变,升级的只是各种形式和手段;③新零售的最大趋势是线上线下相结合,电商与线下实体将由原先的独立、冲突走向混合、融合,通过精准化、体验为主的模式,去了解消费者、满足并引导消费需求,以达到消费升级之目的。

┃新零售的部分趋势&特征

线上、线下趋于统一化,全渠道零售已是大势所趋:消费者舍弃线下、选择线上的主要原因,不外乎线下店的体验不好且价格昂贵;随着线上、线下及物流的融合,零售商将实现商品、会员、交易、营销等数据的共融互通,向消费者提供跨渠道、无缝化的用户体验,并统一价格、质量、体验等(向消费者提供同质同价的商品和专业的服务),全渠道销售毫无疑问代表了零售的发展趋势;此外,线下零售有很大空间可以提供和创造体验(从优衣库的销售数据看,线下门店越多的地方、线上销售越多);随着物流、人工智能、大数据以及智能门店技术的快速发展,零售业将进入一个崭新的发展阶段。

大型零售体或将面临重组、便利店将迎来大的发展机遇(消费场景碎片化):过去品类丰富的大型综合超市拦截了大部分小超市的生意,如今它们反过来要被社区型小型零售体所影响(例如近20年来“零关店”的大润发也开始关店,沃尔玛和天虹均涉足小型社区零售门店);随着社区消费趋势铺展开来,社区化和便利店将成为零售行业未来发展的重要方向;2016年零售行业中,便利店增长速度最快(增速预计达到15%左右);尼尔森《2016年度中国卖场超市购物者趋势报告》显示,中国便利店的渗透率从2015年的32%上升到38%(比网购高3个百分点),日本便利店和超市的市场份额比例约为54%:46%,中国这一比例目前大致是8%:92%;另据全球经验,人均GDP从1万美元到2万美元的阶段,零售业的主导权开始转移到便利店和专门店手中(以福建为例,2015年厦门、福州、泉州的人均GDP分别达到90971元、75614元和72722元)。

智能门店终端的新业态将成为零售业新亮点:技术的进步将能够保证门店的软硬件等环节能够像AmazonGo一样无需排队、无需结账,与此同时实现门店数字化与智能化改造终端,构建丰富多样的消费场景、升级顾体验。

体验式消费、个性化服务融入消费者生活,消费升级拉动消费品市场增长,品质型消费将成为新常态:随着用户消费需求的差异明显,个性化、创新性的消费模式将更受欢迎;随着消费体验的优化,消费者购买力得以提升,品牌企业将从中受益;以往消费者更多是为了满足自身的实际需求而消费,会偏向于购买性价比高或者促销产品,随着消费能力的提升部分消费者走向“符号型消费”(即“只买贵的,不买对的”),“品质型消费”是介于两者之间的消费态度-消费者的购物需求由从前的功能性需求发展到个人情感需求,从满足基本的生活需求发展到彰显个人品味和价值观的需求(例如消费者为家庭购买食品饮料时,比以往更追求高端化和高品质的产品,健康和安全成为其首要考虑因素)。

C2B& C2F渐成趋势,生产&流通企业数字化/去库存化:随着线上线下消费的结合,需求及供给信息相互融合,从生产到消费均可通过大数据等技术手段来预测,将得以控制产能、降低企业库存。

全渠道零售解决方案服务商将扮演重要角色:目前国内基于SAAS软件的有能力提供真正意义“全渠道解决方案”的服务商还很少(Tom一直认为在该领域的有竞争力的服务商在不久的将来将诞生几家独角兽)。以又一城软件(阿里巴巴投资企业)为例,其提供的全渠道零售服务的主要内容是:为零售企业整合实体渠道、电商渠道和移动电商渠道,通过全场景数据打通、数字化运营改造、超体验卖场升级,在满足消费者购买所需商品及服务并享受跨渠道、无差别购买体验的同时,助力零售企业构建全渠道、全业态、全客群、全品类、全时段的新零售和商业体系。


〔以下与新零售趋势/特征有关的英文内容摘自互联网,Tom决定偷懒不翻译、保持原滋原味。〕

The subscription economy

The subscription model is changing consumers’ approach to ownership – for younger shoppers in particular, attitudes towards owning things are changing,and a significant number say they are interested in renting clothes and other products from high street brands.

Delivery

Crowdsourcing is helping to make delivery cheaper providing new services that tap into a freelance workforce or make use of journeys consumers are already making. Retailers are offering ever-quicker deliveries – as little as an hour for many.

Personal commerce

People-centric retail models are emerging, specifically online-based services that are designed carefully around a particular individual. This idea of building an experience around a shopper’s tastes is moving into the store environment.

Social influence

A particularly fast-moving area - in the last six months, use of socialmedia has continued to become more visual with pictures and video becoming more important. Networks are starting to provide consumer with ways to do buy directly on social channels, integrating commerce in a much more successful way.

TV shopping reinvented

Television is set to play a big role in commerce in the future, and theline between being a huge retailer and being a huge media company will blur.The growing use of video online means retailers are starting to use tools likelive-streaming to boost their online proposition and engage consumers.

Internal re-organization

Retailers are working hard behind the scenes to make these changes happen.Companies have begun to fundamentally restructure their organizations in response to omnichannel retailing - they are now designing the businesses around customer experience rather than by channel, and are bringing traditionally disparate departments together in order to enable real-time trading.

Internet of Things

The IoT could affect retailers in many ways, including their customer proposition – whether this is selling connected products or developing automated services. Some retailers are using their stores to show customers what a smart home could look like, with the aim of inspiring and educating.Others are making an early start on developing the infrastructure and customer behavior needed for a smart world. Brands need to start the process of instilling a smart home-friendly mind set, so consumers get used to the idea of their fridge ordering their milk for them. Recent Deloitte research showed that 66% of consumers think the IoT could make their lives easier, making this investment worthwhile.

Virtual reality

Virtual reality has been of most use to marketers so far. Fashion retailers have used VR to engage with customers by taking them to ‘virtual catwalks’. Travel companies are using the technology to create virtual brochures, allowing potential customers to get an immersive taster of what to expect on their holiday. However, VR could have uses beyond marketing - some are working with technology companies to build virtual shops.

Robots

Robots are used throughout the retail supply chain. They are anincreasingly common sight in warehouses and several retailers are working on building robots that can assist with and speed up the fulfillment process. Robotic shopping carts are also becoming more common as retailers work on improving efficiency and customer experience. In addition, retailers are using customer-facing robots that are designed to find products for customers and either take the customer there or bring the product to them.

Driverless vehicles

Autonomous vehicle technology is being used to develop driverless courier vehicles, and drones are also still on the horizon. Brands are starting to use them for short distance deliveries – manufacturers claim they are cheaper and quicker than current courier options.

Artificial intelligence

The first devices are starting to come on the market that seek to bring AI and cognitive technology into the home. Across the consumer industry, brands are experimenting with different uses of AI. Some are allowing customers to order takeaway using voice recognition technology, meaning consumers don’t have to scroll through menus. Others are trying in-store AI-powered shopping assistants. These help shoppers get information as they navigate stores, and are designed to allow consumers to ask their phones instead of store associates.


┃与新零售相关的部分图表&数据(主要摘自尼尔森研报)

















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